Data-driven Decision Models

Decision trees and random forests make complex relationships visible and support informed data-based decisions. They help identify influencing factors, evaluate options, and better assess future developments.

A decision tree maps decisions as a branched if-then structure, while a random forest combines many such trees to make more robust predictions. Both methods help structure complex decision processes based on data and reduce uncertainty.

Examples in Tourism:

Analyze which factors (price, season, reviews, weather) influence the choice of a travel destination.

Predict whether guests are more likely to book package tours or individual offers.

Decision tree model

Complex Tourism Questions

Example of a Decision Tree

Start: Is there travel interest?
No → No booking
Yes
Price within acceptable range?
No → Drop-off / compare alternatives
Yes
Travel period = High season?
Yes
Ratings ≥ 4 stars?
Yes → High booking probability
No → Medium booking probability
No (off-season)
Special offer available?
Yes → High booking probability
No → Medium booking probability
Marketing contact personalized?
Yes → Booking probability increases
No → No change

Legend:

High booking probability
Medium booking probability
No booking / drop-off

💡 Click on the boxes to expand or collapse branches

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